Classification research / edition 2026.10
Define the state
Separate economic cycles, observable market conditions and latent statistical states before comparing regime labels.
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Economic Cycle Versus Market State
Separate retrospective economic turning points from time-specific market classifications, then preserve the information set behind each label.
Regime Labels and Investment Decisions
Understand why a descriptive state is not a forecast or an instruction, and identify the separate evidence needed for a decision rule.
Growth and Inflation Quadrants
Define the two axes before naming the four quadrants, with special care over levels, changes, mixed frequencies, and data vintages.
Volatility and Liquidity States
Measure movement and tradability separately, distinguish market from funding liquidity, and avoid treating quiet observations as proof of resilience.