Regime definition sensitivity

Candidate definition

12 fictional decisions

Growth threshold (points) Inflation threshold (points) Boundary half-width (points)

Baseline: thresholds 0 / 0; inclusive half-width 0.1. Each observation uses its own following-month cutoff, on day 20 at 16:00 UTC.

CompareReset

Definition sensitivity

3 / 12 labels changed

G+ / I+ : 2

G+ / I- : 0

G- / I+ : 2

G- / I- : 2

Boundary : 5

Unavailable : 1

Same information set, different thresholds

Observation	Baseline	Candidate	Changed
2024-01	G+ / I+	G+ / I+	No
2024-02	G+ / I+	G+ / I+	No
2024-03	G+ / I-	Boundary	Yes
2024-04	G- / I-	G- / I-	No
2024-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	No
2024-06	Boundary	G- / I+	Yes
2024-07	G+ / I+	Boundary	Yes
2024-08	Boundary	Boundary	No
2024-09	Boundary	Boundary	No
2024-10	G- / I-	G- / I-	No
2024-11	Boundary	Boundary	No
2024-12	G- / I+	G- / I+	No

Synthetic fixture constructed and published 2026-10-16. Not a historical prediction record. Changed labels measure definition sensitivity, not accuracy, confidence or profitability. Later revisions are excluded from each information cutoff.